3.8 Article

Coexistence of two dengue virus serotypes and forecasting for Madeira Island

Journal

OPERATIONS RESEARCH FOR HEALTH CARE
Volume 7, Issue -, Pages 122-131

Publisher

ELSEVIER
DOI: 10.1016/j.orhc.2015.07.003

Keywords

Modeling infectious diseases; Dengue; Virus serotype; Multistrain

Funding

  1. Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT) [UID/MAT/04106/2013, UID/CEC/00319/2013, PTDC/EEI-AUT/1450/2012]
  2. FEDER under POFC-QREN
  3. COMPETE [FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER-028894]
  4. Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia [PTDC/EEI-AUT/1450/2012] Funding Source: FCT

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The first outbreak of dengue occurred in Madeira Island in 2012, featuring one virus serotype. Aedes aegypti was the vector of the disease and it is unlikely that it will be eliminated from the island. Therefore, a new outbreak of dengue fever can occur and, if it happens, risk to the population increases if two serotypes coexist. In this paper, mathematical modeling and numerical simulations are carried out to forecast what may happen in Madeira Island in such a scenario. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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