Journal
TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE
Volume 100, Issue -, Pages 238-248Publisher
ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC
DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2015.07.005
Keywords
Low-carbon technology; Innovation risk; Global value chain (GVC); Manufacturing industry; China
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Funding
- National Natural Science Foundation of China [71472057, 71273073, 71073041]
- MOST of China [2012GXS4D080]
- MOE of China [20122304110026]
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This paper analyzes the risk of low-carbon technological innovation in emerging economies under globalization, by integrating the method of global value chain (GVC) and technological innovation linear progress into a new analytical framework. Based on the proposed framework, this research is conducted from three perspectives research and development risk, manufacturing risk and marketing risk. Subsequently, on the basis of the constructed risk evaluation index system, using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and a comprehensive evaluation method based on triangular fuzzy numbers, this paper evaluates the risk of low-carbon technological innovation under the GVC in the Chinese manufacturing industry. The results show that the global low-carbon manufacturing risk ranged between low and moderate, while the global low-carbon research and development risk, and the global marketing risk ranged between moderate and high. In accordance with these results, this paper puts forward a decision making process of risk response modes and the corresponding risk response strategies for Chinese manufacturers. (c) 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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