Journal
6TH INTERNATIONAL BUILDING PHYSICS CONFERENCE (IBPC 2015)
Volume 78, Issue -, Pages 979-984Publisher
ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.egypro.2015.11.037
Keywords
Bayesian calibration; Dynamic model; Linear regression; Retrofit analysis
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This paper proposes a lightweight Bayesian calibration of dynamic models that accounts for model parameter uncertainties. A regression model was built to represent the dynamic model using parameter screening and multiple linear regression. Given this regression model and prior probability distributions of its input parameters, a Bayesian calibration method is developed to provide their posterior distributions. A case study is presented and the result shows considerable alignment between model prediction and measurement after calibration. This indicates its capability to perform fast risk-conscious calibration for most current retrofit practice where only monthly consumption and demand data are available. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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