Morphological adjustment of the Qingshuigou channel on the Yellow River Delta and factors controlling its avulsion

The avulsion time scale of channels on the Yellow River delta (YRD) is about a decade due to the large sediment load, and rapid channel aggradation and progradation. Nevertheless, the Qingshuigou channel has been maintained for about four decades since 1976. This channel provides an ideal opportunity to study channel evolution following avulsion and to examine different avulsion criteria. In this study, we analyzed the geomorphic adjustment of the lower Qingshuigou channel during 1976-2015, and calculated normalized gradient advantage and superelevation at the channel to estimate how close the channel was to avulsion. Results showed that channel evolution processes may be divided into four phases: I (1976-1980) rapid aggradation, II (1980-1985) channel widening and enlargement, III (1985-1996) main channel aggradation and shrinkage, and IV (1996-2015) main channel incision and deepening. Evolution phases I, II and III are similar to the avulsion cycle observed in natural and experimental fluvial systems. The calculated values of normalized gradient advantage and superelevation in early 1990s exceeded the critical values suggested by previous studies, implying that the channel was prone to avulsion. Nevertheless, avulsion was prevented mainly due to limited overbank flows, constriction from artificial dikes, and slowed channel extension as a result of reduced sediment load. The evolution of the Qingshuigou channel confirms previous arguments that superelevation and gradient advantage are not sufficient for avulsion, and multiple factors should be considered, including flood frequency, lateral mobility, sediment diameter, and human interruptions.