The potential distribution of the Russian wheat aphid (Diuraphis noxia): an updated distribution model including irrigation improves model fit for predicting potential spread

Diuraphis noxia (Kurdjumov), Russian wheat aphid, is one of the world's most invasive and economically important agricultural pests of wheat and barley. In May 2016, it was found for the first time in Australia, with further sampling confirming it was widespread throughout south-eastern regions. Russian wheat aphid is not yet present in New Zealand. The impacts of this pest if it establishes in New Zealand, could result in serious control problems in wheat-and barley-growing regions. To evaluate whether D. noxia could establish populations in New Zealand we used the climate modelling software CLIMEX to locate where potential viable populations might occur. We re-parameterised the existing CLIMEX model by Hughes and Maywald (1990) by improving the model fit using currently known distribution records of D. noxia, and we also considered the role of irrigation into the potential spread of this invasive insect. The updated model now fits the current known distribution better than the previous Hughes and Maywald CLIMEX model, particularly in temperate and Mediterranean areas in Australia and Europe; and in more semi-arid areas in north-western China and Middle Eastern countries. Our model also highlights new climatically suitable areas for the establishment of D. noxia, not previously reported, including parts of France, the UK and New Zealand. Our results suggest that, when suitable host plants are present, Russian wheat aphid could establish in these regions. The new CLIMEX projections in the present study are useful tools to inform risk assessments and target surveillance and monitoring efforts for identifying susceptible areas to invasion by Russian wheat aphid.