4.1 Article

Inequality, the Great Recession and slow recovery

Journal

CAMBRIDGE JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS
Volume 40, Issue 2, Pages 373-399

Publisher

OXFORD UNIV PRESS
DOI: 10.1093/cje/bev016

Keywords

Consumption; Saving; Inequality; Aggregate demand

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Funding

  1. Institute for New Economic Thinking
  2. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

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Rising inequality reduced income growth for the bottom 95% of the US personal income distribution beginning about 1980. To maintain stable debt to income, this group's consumption-income ratio needed to decline, which did not happen through 2006, and its debt-income ratio rose dramatically, unlike the ratio for the top 5%. In the Great Recession, the consumption-income ratio for the bottom 95% did finally decline, consistent with tighter borrowing constraints, whilst the top 5% ratio rose, consistent with consumption smoothing. We argue that higher inequality and the associated demand drag helps explain the slow recovery.

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