Bayesian networks for mass spectrometric metabolite identification via molecular fingerprints

Motivation: Metabolites, small molecules that are involved in cellular reactions, provide a direct functional signature of cellular state. Untargeted metabolomics experiments usually rely on tandem mass spectrometry to identify the thousands of compounds in a biological sample. Recently, we presented CSI:FingerID for searching in molecular structure databases using tandem mass spectrometry data. CSI: FingerID predicts a molecular fingerprint that encodes the structure of the query compound, then uses this to search a molecular structure database such as PubChem. Scoring of the predicted query fingerprint and deterministic target fingerprints is carried out assuming independence between the molecular properties constituting the fingerprint. Results: We present a scoring that takes into account dependencies between molecular properties. As before, we predict posterior probabilities of molecular properties using machine learning. Dependencies between molecular properties are modeled as a Bayesian tree network; the tree structure is estimated on the fly from the instance data. For each edge, we also estimate the expected covariance between the two random variables. For fixed marginal probabilities, we then estimate conditional probabilities using the known covariance. Now, the corrected posterior probability of each candidate can be computed, and candidates are ranked by this score. Modeling dependencies improves identification rates of CSI: FingerID by 2.85 percentage points.