Journal
AUK
Volume 135, Issue 1, Pages 29-43Publisher
OXFORD UNIV PRESS INC
DOI: 10.1642/AUK-17-107.1
Keywords
true survival; spatially explicit Cormack-Jolly-Seber models; Bayesian survival analysis; breeding dispersal; alternative prey hypothesis; waders
Categories
Funding
- National Fish and Wildlife Foundation [2010-0061-015, 2011-0032-014, 0801.12.032731, 0801.13.041129]
- Neotropical Migratory Bird Conservation Act of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service [F11AP01040, F12AP00734, F13APO535]
- Alaska Department of Fish and Game
- Arctic Goose Joint Venture
- Arctic National Wildlife Refuge
- Bureau of Land Management
- Cape Krusenstern National Monument grant
- Centre for Wildlife Ecology at Simon Fraser University
- Churchill Northern Studies Centre
- Cornell University Graduate School Mellon Grant
- Ducks Unlimited Canada
- Environment and Climate Change Canada
- FQRNT (Quebec)
- Indigenous and Northern Affairs Canada
- Kansas State University
- Kresge Foundation
- Liz Claiborne/Art Ortenberg Foundation
- Manomet Center for Conservation Sciences
- Murie Science and Learning Center grants
- National Park Service
- National Science Foundation [1023396, 1110444]
- Natural Resources Canada (Polar Continental Shelf Program)
- Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada
- Neotropical Migratory Bird Conservation Act [4073]
- Northern Studies Training Program
- Selawik National Wildlife Refuge
- U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (Migratory Bird Management Division)
- U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (Survey, Monitoring and Assessment Program)
- U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (Alaska National Wildlife Refuge System's Challenge Cost Share Program)
- U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (Avian Influenza Health program)
- U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (Influenza program)
- U.S. Geological Survey (Changing Arctic Ecosystem Initiative, Wildlife Program of the USGS Ecosystem Mission Area)
- Universite du Quebec a Rimouski
- University of Alaska Fairbanks
- University of Colorado Denver
- University of Missouri Columbia
Ask authors/readers for more resources
Many Arctic shorebird populations are declining, and quantifying adult survival and the effects of anthropogenic factors is a crucial step toward a better understanding of population dynamics. We used a recently developed, spatially explicit Cormack-Jolly-Seber model in a Bayesian framework to obtain broad-scale estimates of true annual survival rates for 6 species of shorebirds at 9 breeding sites across the North American Arctic in 2010-2014. We tested for effects of environmental and ecological variables, study site, nest fate, and sex on annual survival rates of each species in the spatially explicit framework, which allowed us to distinguish between effects of variables on site fidelity versus true survival. Our spatially explicit analysis produced estimates of true survival rates that were substantially higher than previously published estimates of apparent survival for most species, ranging from S = 0.72 to 0.98 across 5 species. However, survival was lower for the arcticola subspecies of Dunlin (Calidris alpina arcticola; S = 0.54), our only study taxon that migrates through the East Asian-Australasian Flyway. Like other species that use that flyway, arcticola Dunlin could be experiencing unsustainably low survival rates as a result of loss of migratory stopover habitat. Survival rates of our study species were not affected by timing of snowmelt or summer temperature, and only 2 species showed minor variation among study sites. Furthermore, although previous reproductive success, predator abundance, and the availability of alternative prey each affected survival of one species, no factors broadly affected survival across species. Overall, our findings of few effects of environmental or ecological variables suggest that annual survival rates of adult shorebirds are generally robust to conditions at Arctic breeding sites. Instead, conditions at migratory stopovers or overwintering sites might be driving adult survival rates and should be the focus of future studies.
Authors
I am an author on this paper
Click your name to claim this paper and add it to your profile.
Reviews
Recommended
No Data Available