The direct and indirect cost of diabetes in Italy: a prevalence probabilistic approach

Introduction Diabetes mellitus is a chronic degenerative disease associated with a high risk of chronic complications and comorbidities. However, very few data are available on the associated cost. The objective of this study is to identify the available information on the epidemiology of the disease and estimate the average annual cost incurred by the National Health Service and Society for the Treatment of Diabetes in Italy. Methods A probabilistic prevalence cost of illness model was developed to calculate an aggregate measure of the economic burden associated with the disease, in terms of direct medical costs (drugs, hospitalizations, monitoring and adverse events) and indirect costs (absenteeism and early retirement). A systematic review of the literature was conducted to determine both the epidemiological and economic data. Furthermore, a one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analysis with 5,000 Monte Carlo simulations was performed to test the robustness of the results and define a 95 % CI. Results The model estimated a prevalence of 2.6 million patients under drug therapies in Italy. The total economic burden of diabetic patients in Italy amounted to epsilon 20.3 billion/year (95 % CI epsilon 18.61 to epsilon 22.29 billion), 54 % of which are associated with indirect costs (95 % CI epsilon 10.10 to epsilon 11.62 billion) and 46 % with direct costs only (95 % CI epsilon 8.11 to epsilon 11.06 billion). Conclusions This is the first study conducted in Italy aimed at estimating the direct and indirect cost of diabetes with a probabilistic prevalence approach. As might be expected, the lack of information means that the real burden of diabetes is partly underestimated, especially with regard to indirect costs. However, this is a useful approach for policy makers to understand the economic implications of diabetes treatment in Italy.