Is there a future for new hydrocarbon projects in a decarbonizing energy system? A case study for Quebec (Canada)

This paper proposes energy scenarios to 2050 for the Province of Quebec under GHG emission reduction constraints with and without new hydrocarbon exploitation. The main objective is to measure the impact of new hydrocarbon projects on achieving stringent GHG reduction objectives (upto - 80%). Our analysis relies on the North American TIMES Energy Model (NATEM), which belongs to the MARKAL/TIMES family of models supported by the International Energy Agency. In terms of hydrocarbon exploitation, we consider a recent project proposed by the oil industry for exploiting deposits on Anticosti Island. In our GHG reduction scenarios, the results indicate that the hydrocarbons of Anticosti Island would be exported and thus have virtually no effect on the energy consumption mix in Quebec. This mix would be significantly transformed by the 2050 horizon, through numerous energy efficiency measures yielding reductions in final energy consumption, a massive electrification of end-use sectors, and an increased reliance on bioenergy. However, the 2050 GHG emission levels would increase by nearly 7% in the reference (baseline) case. Greater total GHG reductions would thus be required from the baseline at a significantly higher marginal cost.