Short term electricity demand forecasting using partially linear additive quantile regression with an application to the unit commitment problem

Short term probabilistic load forecasting is essential for any power generating utility. This paper discusses an application of partially linear additive quantile regression models for predicting short term electricity demand during the peak demand hours (i.e. from 18:00 to 20:00) using South African data for January 2009 to June 2012. Additionally the bounded variable mixed integer linear programming technique is used on the forecasts obtained in order to find an optimal number of units to commit (switch on or off. Variable selection is done using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator. Results from the unit commitment problem show that it is very costly to use gas fired generating units. These were not selected as part of the optimal solution. It is shown that the optimal solutions based on median forecasts (Q(0.5) quantile forecasts) are the same as those from the 99th quantile forecasts except for generating unit g(8c),which is a coal fired unit. This shows that for any increase in demand above the median quantile forecasts it will be economical to increase the generation of electricity from generating unit g(8c). The main contribution of this study is in the use of nonlinear trend variables and the combining of forecasting with the unit commitment problem. The study should be useful to system operators in power utility companies in the unit commitment scheduling and dispatching of electricity at a minimal cost particularly during the peak period when the grid is constrained due to increased demand for electricity.