Journal
WEATHER AND CLIMATE EXTREMES
Volume 12, Issue -, Pages 43-68Publisher
ELSEVIER
DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2016.01.002
Keywords
Drought index; Hidden Markov model; Standard precipitation index; Gaussian mixture model; Indian monsoon; Uncertainty analysis; Drought vulnerability
Categories
Funding
- NSF CAREER [AGS 0847472]
- NSF INTEROP DriNET [0753116]
- NIFA USDA Drought Trigger Projects at Purdue through Texas AM [2011-67019-20042]
- Purdue Climate Change Research Center
- Information Technology Research Academy-Water (ITRA-W)
- Indo-US ScienceandTechnologyForum (IUSSTF)
- Directorate For Geosciences
- Div Atmospheric & Geospace Sciences [0847472] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
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Drought characteristics for the Indian monsoon region are analyzed using two different datasets and standard precipitation index (SPI), standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI), Gaussian mixture model-based drought index (GMM-DI), and hidden Markov model-based drought index (HMMDI) for the period 1901-2004. Drought trends and variability were analyzed for three epochs: 1901-1935, 1936-1971 and 1972-2004. Irrespective of the dataset and methodology used, the results indicate an increasing trend in drought severity and frequency during the recent decades (1972-2004). Droughts are becoming more regional and are showing a general shift to the agriculturally important coastal south-India, central Maharashtra, and Indo-Gangetic plains indicating higher food security and socioeconomic vulnerability in the region. (C) 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.
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