Journal
POPULATION AND ENVIRONMENT
Volume 38, Issue 1, Pages 72-100Publisher
SPRINGER
DOI: 10.1007/s11111-016-0255-x
Keywords
Climate; Adaptation; Migration; Response pattern; Timing; Rural Mexico
Categories
Funding
- NIH by the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute for Child Health and Human Development (NICHD) [R24 HD041023, R24 HD066613]
- National Science Foundation (NSF) [ACI-0940818]
- Office of Advanced Cyberinfrastructure (OAC)
- Direct For Computer & Info Scie & Enginr [0940818] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
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Although evidence is increasing that climate shocks influence human migration, it is unclear exactly when people migrate after a climate shock. A climate shock might be followed by an immediate migration response. Alternatively, migration, as an adaptive strategy of last resort, might be delayed and employed only after available in situ (in-place) adaptive strategies are exhausted. In this paper, we explore the temporally lagged association between a climate shock and future migration. Using multilevel event-history models, we analyze the risk of Mexico-US migration over a seven-year period after a climate shock. Consistent with a delayed response pattern, we find that the risk of migration is low immediately after a climate shock and increases as households pursue and cycle through in situ adaptive strategies available to them. However, about 3 years after the climate shock, the risk of migration decreases, suggesting that households are eventually successful in adapting in situ.
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