A spatial explicit scenario method to support participative regional land-use decisions regarding economic and ecological options of short rotation coppice (SRC) for renewable energy production on arable land: case study application for the Gottingen district, Germany

Background: Renewable energy (RE) production is a land-use driver with increasing impact on landscape configuration and a matter of controversial debate. Woody biomass cropping provides an opportunity to interlink RE supply with spatial planning goals, RE concepts and rural development programmes since it tackles several issues, ranging from climate or soil protection to over food production and income diversification as well as new and additional regional value cluster. Participatory scenario generation supported by interactive visualization tools facilitates the development of joint goals regarding local land-use decisions. Methods: Based on a stakeholder dialogue in the rural district of Gttingen, two scenarios were quantified and analysed. Reflecting a farmer-oriented economic perspective in (a) Income first and an integration of economic and ecological aspects in (b) Ecological benefits, the two scenarios address opportunities and constraints of poplar short rotation coppice (SRC) in comparison to three common crop rotations in the case study area. Suitable SRC parcels were determined by linking yield modelling results of annual reference crops and poplar SRC with ecological indicators of water-induced soil erosion and ecotone density as well as with annuity calculation and a risk assessment (stochastic dominance) based on the Monte Carlo simulation of price and yield fluctuation. Results: SRC was economically superior (stochastically first-order dominant) to all three reference crop rotations (oilseed rape-wheat-barley; maize-wheat-maize-wheat; oilseed rape-wheat-wheat) on 1800 ha or 4.9% of the arable land. With a positive annuity difference ranging between 63 and 236(sic)ha(-1) a(-1) SRC provides an opportunity to diversify farmers' income. The primary energy supply from the suitable land parcels accounted for 130 GWh a(-1) or 8% of the RE supply in 2030 strived for by local climate protection goals. Around 50% of the 1800 ha are suitable as focal areas for a joint consideration of farmers' income, erosion protection and structural enrichment. The related average economic trade-off on annuity differences for the gain of substantially increased ecological benefits is about 17(sic)ha(-1) a(-1) (13%). Conclusions: Linking ecological criteria assessment with dynamic investment calculation and risk evaluation in a joint methodology revealed that SRC is an economic viable alternative for renewable energy production and can provide ecological synergies in terms of erosion protection and structural enrichment. The presented methodology is transferrable and allows to visualize stakeholder-based scenarios with an agreed identification of opportunities and constraints that come with SRC on arable land. This helps to better integrate local land-use decisions with formal and informal spatial planning goals.