Journal
EUROSURVEILLANCE
Volume 20, Issue 27, Pages 6-11Publisher
EUR CENTRE DIS PREVENTION & CONTROL
DOI: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES2015.20.27.21181
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Funding
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) KAKENHI [26670308, 26700028]
- Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development
- Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST) CREST program
- RISTEX program for Science of Science, Technology and Innovation Policy
- Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, United States National Institutes of Health
- Office of Pandemics and Emerging Threats at the United States Department of Health and Human Services
- NSF, joint NSF-NIH-USDA Ecology and Evolution of Infectious Diseases programme [1414374]
- United Kingdom Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council grant [BB/M008894/1]
- NSF-IIS Grant [1518939]
- BBSRC [BB/M008894/1] Funding Source: UKRI
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To guide risk assessment, expected numbers of cases and generations were estimated, assuming a case importation of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS). Our analysis of 36 importation events yielded the risk of observing secondary transmission events at 22.7% (95% confidence interval: 19.3-25.1). The risks of observing generations 2, 3 and 4 were estimated at 10.5%, 6.1% and 3.9%, respectively. Countries at risk should be ready for highly variable outcomes following an importation of MERS.
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