Do International Students Displace US Students in the Pursuit of Higher Degrees in Science and Engineering? A Forecasting Analysis

The impact of international graduate students on the enrolment of US students in advanced degree programmes has been the subject of intense debate in the last decade. Overall, arguments pro and against the view that international graduate students displace US students in the pursuit of higher degrees in science and engineering have been based on opinion or retrospective analysis. While these studies offer useful insights, ultimately they fall short of supporting decision making in educational policymaking because they do not provide a prospective analysis. The goal of this paper is to address this gap through the development of forecasting models of foreign and domestic student enrolment in advanced degree programmes. The results of our study suggest that current foreign student enrolment rates may be optimal and educational policies aimed at strengthening the participation of US students in graduate programmes science and engineering needs to consider measures other than reducing international students' enrolment rates.