Journal
PURE AND APPLIED GEOPHYSICS
Volume 173, Issue 12, Pages 3671-3692Publisher
SPRINGER BASEL AG
DOI: 10.1007/s00024-016-1357-1
Keywords
Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment; seismic sources; Karhunen-Loeve expansion; subduction zone earthquakes
Categories
Funding
- PNNL
- University of Washington (UW)
- NSF [DMS-1216732, EAR-1331412]
- FEMA
- Applied Mathematics Department of UW
- Division Of Mathematical Sciences
- Direct For Mathematical & Physical Scien [1216732] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
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To perform probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for subduction zone earthquakes, it is necessary to start with a catalog of possible future events along with the annual probability of occurrence, or a probability distribution of such events that can be easily sampled. For near-field events, the distribution of slip on the fault can have a significant effect on the resulting tsunami. We present an approach to defining a probability distribution based on subdividing the fault geometry into many subfaults and prescribing a desired covariance matrix relating slip on one subfault to slip on any other subfault. The eigenvalues and eigenvectors of this matrix are then used to define a Karhunen-LoSve expansion for random slip patterns. This is similar to a spectral representation of random slip based on Fourier series but conforms to a general fault geometry. We show that only a few terms in this series are needed to represent the features of the slip distribution that are most important in tsunami generation, first with a simple one-dimensional example where slip varies only in the down-dip direction and then on a portion of the Cascadia Subduction Zone.
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