Journal
EARTHS FUTURE
Volume 5, Issue 6, Pages 633-647Publisher
AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
DOI: 10.1002/2016EF000500
Keywords
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Funding
- Office of Naval Research [N00014-11-1-0977]
- National Science Foundation [ARC 06-33878, PLR 15-04404]
- Office of Polar Programs (OPP)
- Directorate For Geosciences [1504404] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
- Office of Polar Programs (OPP)
- Directorate For Geosciences [1504023] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
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The changing Arctic sea-ice cover is likely to impact the trans-border exchange of sea ice between the exclusive economic zones (EEZs) of the Arctic nations, affecting the risk of ice-rafted contamination. We apply the Lagrangian Ice Tracking System (LITS) to identify sea-ice formation events and track sea ice to its melt locations. Most ice (52%) melts within 100 km of where it is formed; ca. 21% escapes from its EEZ. Thus, most contaminants will be released within an ice parcel's originating EEZ, while material carried by over 1 00,000 km(2) of ice-an area larger than France and Germany combined-will be released to other nations' waters. Between the periods 1988-1999 and 2000-2014, sea-ice formation increased by similar to 17% (roughly 6 million km(2) vs. 5 million km2 annually). Melting peaks earlier; freeze-up begins later; and the central Arctic Ocean is more prominent in both formation and melt in the later period. The total area of ice transported between EEZs increased, while transit times decreased: for example, Russian ice reached melt locations in other nations' EEZs an average of 46% faster while North American ice reached destinations in Eurasian waters an average of 37% faster. Increased trans-border exchange is mainly a result of increased speed (similar to 14% per decade), allowing first-year ice to escape the summer melt front, even as the front extends further north. Increased trans-border exchange over shorter times is bringing the EEZs of the Arctic nations closer together, which should be taken into account in policy development-including establishment of marine-protected areas.
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