Journal
EARTHS FUTURE
Volume 5, Issue 6, Pages 592-604Publisher
AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
DOI: 10.1002/2016EF000492
Keywords
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Funding
- Environment Research and Technology Development Fund of Ministry of the Environment of Japan [S10]
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We investigated the feasibilities of 2.0 degrees C and 1.5 degrees C climate targets by considering the abatement potentials of a full suite of greenhouse gases, pollutants, and aerosols. We revised the inter-temporal dynamic optimization model DICE-2013R by introducing three features as follows. First, we applied a new marginal abatement cost curve derived under moderate assumptions regarding future socioeconomic development-the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 (SSP2) scenario. Second, we addressed emission abatement for not only industrial CO2 but also land-use CO2, CH4, N2O, halogenated gases, CO, volatile organic compounds, SOx, NOx, black carbon and organic carbon. Third, we improved the treatment of the non-CO2 components in the climate module based on MAGICC 6.0. We obtained the following findings: (1) It is important to address the individual emissions in an analysis of low stabilization scenarios because abating land-use CO2, non-CO2 and aerosol emissions also contributes to maintaining a low level of radiative forcing and substantially affects the climate costs. (2) The 2.0 degrees C target can be efficiently reached under the assumptions of the SSP2 scenario. (3) The 1.5 degrees C target can be met with early deep cuts under the assumption of a temperature overshoot, and it will triple the carbon price and double the mitigation cost compared with the 2.0 degrees C case.
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