Journal
HUMAN ECOLOGY
Volume 44, Issue 6, Pages 687-699Publisher
SPRINGER/PLENUM PUBLISHERS
DOI: 10.1007/s10745-016-9859-0
Keywords
Climate change; Rural Mexico; Domestic migration; International migration; Environment
Categories
Funding
- Minnesota Population Center [R24 HD041023]
- University of Colorado Population Center [R24 HD066613]
- Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute for Child Health and Human Development (NICHD)
- National Science Foundation (NSF) [ACI-0940818]
- Office of Advanced Cyberinfrastructure (OAC)
- Direct For Computer & Info Scie & Enginr [0940818] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
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Evidence is increasing that climate change and variability may influence human migration patterns. However, there is less agreement regarding the type of migration streams most strongly impacted. This study tests whether climate change more strongly impacted international compared to domestic migration from rural Mexico during 1986-99. We employ eight temperature and precipitation-based climate change indices linked to detailed migration histories obtained from the Mexican Migration Project. Results from multilevel discrete-time event-history models challenge the assumption that climate-related migration will be predominantly short distance and domestic, but instead show that climate change more strongly impacted international moves from rural Mexico. The stronger climate impact on international migration may be explained by the self-insurance function of international migration, the presence of strong migrant networks, and climate-related changes in wage difference. While a warming in temperature increased international outmigration, higher levels of precipitation declined the odds of an international move.
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