Commuting Flows and Labour Market Structure: Modelling Journey to Work Behaviour in an Urban Environment

Using a probabilistic model of urban commuting based on job accessibility, commuting patterns are analysed for the inner and outer parts of Melbourne in 2001 and 2006. Variations in commuting behaviour between different parts of the city and different time periods can be largely ascribed to changes in urban densities, while variations between industries appear to be influenced by a complex mixture of factors, chief among them the role of industry wages and salaries in determining housing choice, and the level of job market specialisation. The implications for urban planning are discussed.