4.6 Article

Optimal Seed Deployment Under Climate Change Using Spatial Models: Application to Loblolly Pine in the Southeastern US

Journal

JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION
Volume 112, Issue 519, Pages 909-920

Publisher

TAYLOR & FRANCIS INC
DOI: 10.1080/01621459.20171292179

Keywords

Assisted migration; Bayesian statistics; Provenance tests; Seed source movements; Spatial statistics

Funding

  1. United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) National Institute of Food and Agriculture (NIFA) [2011-68002-30185]
  2. Agriculture and Food Research Initiative Competitive [2011-68005-30410]
  3. Department of Forestry and Environmental Resources at North Carolina State University
  4. NSF-DMS [1406016, 1613219]
  5. Direct For Mathematical & Physical Scien
  6. Division Of Mathematical Sciences [1613219, 1406016] Funding Source: National Science Foundation

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Provenance tests are a common tool in forestry designed to identify superior genotypes for planting at specific locations. The trials are replicated experiments established with seed from parent trees collected from different regions and grown at several locations. In this work, a Bayesian spatial approach is developed for modeling the expected relative performance of seed sources using climate variables as predictors associated with the origin of seed source and the planting site. The proposed modeling technique accounts for the spatial dependence in the data and introduces a separable Matern covariance structure that provides a flexible means to estimate effects associated with the origin and planting site locations. The statistical model was used to develop a quantitative tool for seed deployment aimed to identify the location of superior performing seed sources that could be suitable fora specific planting site under a given climate scenario. Cross validation results indicate that the proposed spatial models provide superior predictive ability compared to multiple linear regression methods in unobserved locations. The general trend of performance predictions based on future climate scenarios suggests an optimal assisted migration of loblolly pine seed sources from southern and warmer regions to northern and colder areas in the southern USA. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

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