Journal
TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE
Volume 114, Issue -, Pages 313-326Publisher
ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC
DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2016.08.028
Keywords
Adoption behavior; Agent-based modeling; Complementarities; Network effects; Platform competition; Simulation
Categories
Funding
- Tekes-the Finnish Funding Agency for Innovation [3006/31/2013]
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We model how macro-level dynamics of platform competition emerge from micro-level interactions among consumers. We problematize the prevailing winner-take-all hypothesis and argue that instead of assuming that consumers value the general connectivity of an entire network, they are selectively attentive and locally biased. We contrast several alternative agent-based models with differing sets of assumptions regarding consumer agents' behavior and compare their predictions with empirical data from the competition between Sony's PlayStation 3 and Microsoft's Xbox 360. The results show that only when consumers are assumed to be selectively attentive and locally biased is it possible to explain real-life market sharing between the given platforms. In effect; it is shown how a late-entrant platform can get adopted by most consumers in the market, despite the fact that an early entrant has greater initial installed base, greater pool of complementary products, and lower initial price. (C) 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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