Journal
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON CYBERNETICS
Volume 50, Issue 5, Pages 1965-1977Publisher
IEEE-INST ELECTRICAL ELECTRONICS ENGINEERS INC
DOI: 10.1109/TCYB.2017.2743003
Keywords
Silicon; Markov processes; Analytical models; Computer science; Matrix decomposition; Cybernetics; Spectral analysis; Bursts; discrete-time Markov chain approach; epidemic threshold; spectral radius; temporal networks; time-reversed characteristic
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Funding
- Natural Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholar of China [61425019]
- Key Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China [71731004]
- Shanghai SMEC-EDF Shuguang Project [14SG03]
- Shanghai Natural Science Foundation [16ZR1446400]
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Many complex systems can be modeled as temporal networks with time-evolving connections. The influence of their characteristics on epidemic spreading is analyzed in a susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic model illustrated by the discrete-time Markov chain approach. We develop the analytical epidemic thresholds in terms of the spectral radius of weighted adjacency matrix by averaging temporal networks, e.g., periodic, nonperiodic Markovian networks, and a special nonperiodic non-Markovian network (the link activation network) in time. We discuss the impacts of statistical characteristics, e.g., bursts and duration heterogeneity, as well as time-reversed characteristic on epidemic thresholds. We confirm the tightness of the proposed epidemic thresholds with numerical simulations on seven artificial and empirical temporal networks and show that the epidemic threshold of our theory is more precise than those of previous studies.
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