Journal
WATER
Volume 9, Issue 1, Pages -Publisher
MDPI
DOI: 10.3390/w9010008
Keywords
precipitation deficit; precipitation surplus; standardized precipitation index SPI; forecast; verification
Categories
Funding
- Polish Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development
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In the paper, the verification of forecasts of precipitation conditions measured by the standardized precipitation index (SPI) is presented. For the verification of categorical forecasts, a contingency table was used. Standard verification measures were used for the SPI value forecast. The 30-day SPI, moved every 10 days by 10 days, was calculated in 2013-2015 from April to September on the basis of precipitation data from 35 meteorological stations in Poland. Predictions of the 30-day SPI were created in which precipitation was forecasted for the next 10 days (the SPI 10-day forecast) and 20 days (the SPI 20-day forecast). For both the 10 and 20 days, the forecasts were skewed towards drier categories at the expense of wet categories. There was a good agreement between observed and 10-day forecast categories of precipitation. Less agreement is obtained for 20-day forecasts-these forecasts evidently over-dry the assessment of precipitation anomalies. The 10-day SPI value forecast accuracy is very good or good depending on the performance measure, whereas accuracy of the 20-day forecast is unsatisfactory. Both for the SPI categorical and the SPI value forecast, the 10-day SPI forecast is trustworthy and the 20-day forecast should be accepted with reservation and used with caution.
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