Two-Dimensional Dam-Break Flood Analysis in Data-Scarce Regions: The Case Study of Chipembe Dam, Mozambique

This paper presents the results of a modeling study of the hypothetical dam break of Chipembe dam in Mozambique. The modeling approach is based on the software Iber, a freely available dam break and two-dimensional finite volume shallow water model. The shuttle radar topography mission (SRTM) online digital elevation model (DEM) is used as main source of topographic data. Two different DEMs are considered as input for the hydraulic model: a DEM based on the original SRTM data and a hydrologically-conditioned DEM. A sensitivity analysis on the Manning roughness coefficient is performed. The results demonstrate the relevant impact of the DEM used on the predicted flood wave propagation, and a lower influence of the roughness value. The low cost modeling approach proposed in this paper can be an attractive option for modeling exceptional flood caused by dam break, when limited data and resources are available, as in the presented case. The resulting flood-inundation and hazard maps will enable the Regional Water Management Administration of Mozambique (ARA) to develop early warning systems.