Experimental and probabilistic analysis of time to corrosion-induced cover cracking for marine reinforced concrete structures

Corrosion-induced concrete cover cracking is an important indication of durability limit state for marine reinforced concrete structures. In this paper, two analytical models predicting the time from corrosion initiation to cover cracking and their main differences were introduced. Based on an accelerated corrosion test, two models' applicability and variability were compared and discussed with experimental data. Considering the random nature of influencing factors, a probabilistic model was developed by using Monte Carlo simulation technique. The results showed that the cracking time could be modelled by the Weibull distribution. Finally, the probability analytical technology was applied to a marine reinforced concrete pier with four different durability design levels. It is found that both the mean and 90% confidence interval of the cracking time increase when the durability design specifications change from low level to extreme level, which indicates that the accurate prediction of cracking time with a deterministic model will become more difficult accordingly.