Potential distributional changes of invasive crop pest species associated with global climate change

This study investigated the potential global distributional shifts of poikilothermic invasive crop pest species associated with climate change, aiming to understand if their overall global distributions will expand or contract, and how the species distributions will vary across different regions. An ecological niche modelling analysis was conducted for 76 species. The potential distributional changes of the species in 2050 and 2070 were scrutinized for two climate change scenarios, which were further examined across different temperature and precipitation ranges. Results showed that averages of the mean probabilities of presence of the 76 crop pest species were predicted to increase. Higher species turnovers were predicted mostly to occur in areas with increasing predicted species richness. Lower species turnovers, however, were predicted mostly to occur in areas with decreasing predicted species richness. Species richness increases were predicted to occur more often in currently lower temperature (annual mean temperature approximately < 21 degrees C) or lower precipitation (annual precipitation approximately < 1100 mm) regions. Areas with the current annual mean temperatures at around 27 degrees C and 7.5 degrees C, respectively, were predicted to experience the highest decrease and increase in species richness as the climate warms. In conclusion, climate change is likely to expand the pest species' overall distribution across the globe. It could have more profound impacts on the species distributions of those regions where species richness increases are expected, by altering the species' community compositions. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.