Journal
ECOLOGICAL COMPLEXITY
Volume 30, Issue -, Pages 70-75Publisher
ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.ecocom.2016.12.001
Keywords
HIV/AIDS epidemiology; Antiretroviral therapy (ART); SICA compartmental model; Global stability; United Nations UNAIDS strategy
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Funding
- Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT) [UID/MAT/04106/2013, PTDC/EEI-AUT/2933/2014]
- Promover a Producao Cientifica e Desenvolvimento Tecnologico e a Constituicao de Redes Tematicas (PPCDT) [3599]
- FEDER
- Programa Operacional Competitividade e Internacionalizacao (POCI)
- FCT post-doc fellowship [SFRH/BPD/72061/2010]
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We propose a new mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Global stability of the unique endemic equilibrium is proved. Then, based on data provided by the Progress Report on the AIDS response in Cape Verde 2015, we calibrate our model to the cumulative cases of infection by HIV and AIDS from 1987 to 2014 and we show that our model predicts well such reality. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is done for the case study in Cape Verde. We conclude that the goal of the United Nations to end the AIDS epidemic by 2030 is a nontrivial task. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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