Journal
ANNALS OF APPLIED PROBABILITY
Volume 27, Issue 2, Pages 1003-1056Publisher
INST MATHEMATICAL STATISTICS
DOI: 10.1214/16-AAP1223
Keywords
Quickest detection; Brownian motion; Bessel process; optimal stopping; parabolic partial differential equation; free-boundary problem; smooth fit; entrance boundary; nonlinear Fredholm integral equation; the change-of-variable formula with local time on curves/surfaces
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Funding
- British Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC)
- Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council [1090655] Funding Source: researchfish
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Consider the motion of a Brownian particle that initially takes place in a two-dimensional plane and then after some random/unobservable time continues in the three-dimensional space. Given that only the distance of the particle to the origin is being observed, the problem is to detect the time at which the particle departs from the plane as accurately as possible. We solve this problem in the most uncertain scenario when the random/unobservable time is (i) exponentially distributed and (ii) independent from the initial motion of the particle in the plane. The solution is expressed in terms of a stopping time that minimises the probability of a false early detection and the expected delay of a missed late detection.
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