Childhood Lung Function Predicts Adult Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease and Asthma-Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Overlap Syndrome

Rationale: The burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is increasing, yet there are limited data on early life risk factors. Objectives: To investigate the role of childhood lung function in adult COPD phenotypes. Methods: Prebronchodilator spirometry was performed for a cohort of 7-year-old Tasmanian children (n = 8,583) in 1968 who were resurveyed at 45 years, and a selected subsample (n = 1,389) underwent prebronchodilator and post-bronchodilator spirometry. For this analysis, COPD was spirometrically defined as a post-bronchodilator FEV1/FVC less than the lower limit of normal. Asthma-COPD overlap syndrome (ACOS) was defined as the coexistence of both COPD and current asthma. Associations between childhood lung function and asthma/COPD/ACOS were examined using multinomial regression. Measurements and Main Results: At 45 years, 959 participants had neither current asthma nor COPD (unaffected), 269 had current asthma alone, 59hadCOPDalone, and68hadACOS. The reweightedprevalence of asthma alone was 13.5%, COPD alone 4.1%, and ACOS 2.9%. The lowest quartile of FEV1 at 7 years was associated with ACOS (odds ratio, 2.93; 95% confidence interval, 1.32-6.52), but notCOPDor asthma alone. The lowest quartile of FEV1/FVC ratio at 7 years was associated with ACOS (odds ratio, 16.3; 95% confidence interval, 4.7-55.9) and COPD (odds ratio, 5.76; 95% confidence interval, 1.9-17.4), butnot asthma alone. Conclusions: Being inthe lowest quartile for lungfunction at age 7may have long-term consequences for the development of COPDand ACOS by middle age. Screening of lung function in school age children may identify a high-risk group that could be targeted for intervention. Further research is needed to understand possiblemodifiers of these associations and develop interventions for children with impaired lung function.