ANALYSIS OF SERIES VARIATIONAL CHARACTERISTICS AND CAUSES OF TARIM RIVER BASIN RUNOFF UNDER THE CHANGING ENVIRONMENT

Tarim River, whose mainstream water relies mainly on supplies from origin area rivers, is a typical inland river in the arid area of our country. Based on measured hydrological data and methods of linear tendency estimate and Mann-Kendall non-parametric test, this article taking '4 origins and 1 mainstream' of Tarim River Basin as the research object, makes a research on the characteristics and laws of historical hydrological processes together with the spatial and temporal characteristics of regional climate change, and analyzes the impact of climate change on water cycle and runoff changes. The research results indicate that temperature and precipitation in Tarim River Basin present an increasing trend. Among the four original rivers of the Tarim River, the annual runoff of Aksu River, Kaikong River, and Yarkant River all shows a significantly increasing trend, the first two of which enjoys an obvious increase, while the annual runoff of Hotan River demonstrates a slight increase. Influenced by human activities, the annual runoff of the Tarim River mainstream has tended to decrease for many years. With the special geographical location and basin structure, the Tarim River Basin is mainly supplied by meltwater of glacier and snow. Although the rising precipitation and the increasing melt glacier keep the ample runoff in the origin area in the near future, the water resource in the area will be confronted with severe problems in the long run.