Analysis of the energy intensity of Kazakhstan: from data compilation to decomposition analysis

There are large gaps in energy consumption data and consequently in the estimates of CO2 emissions from fuel combustion in Kazakhstan. This study provides the first comprehensive review of energy consumption trends in Kazakhstan, discusses several important discrepancies in energy statistics and presents an improved versions of Energy Balances, developed using additional data. The results indicate that Kazakhstan's energy intensity of gross domestic product (GDP) declined by 30% from 1.14 to 0.8 toe/thousand 2005USD between 2000 and 2014. To understand factors influencing this decline, the change in energy intensity of GDP was decomposed using the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index I method. The upstream sector (mainly oil and gas) played the most important role in the observed GDP energy intensity change. Although the share of this sector in total GDP increased, causing an increase in energy intensity due to inter-sectoral structural effects, the consequences were counteracted by a twofold decline in the sector's energy intensity, resulting in a net decrease. On the contrary, the power and heat, transport and household sectors saw an increase in energy intensity between 2000 and 2014. The results clearly demonstrate that there is an urgent need for policies and measures to be put in place in the power and heat, household and transport sectors, to support renewable energy development, increase buildings' energy efficiencies, replace inefficient stoves and improve heating systems and encourage changes in public transportation systems. Furthermore, improving energy statistics and setting appropriate sectoral energy intensity reduction targets are crucial for achieving real efficiency improvements in the economy.