Journal
JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL MONEY AND FINANCE
Volume 76, Issue -, Pages 28-49Publisher
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2017.05.006
Keywords
Volatility forecasting; Realized volatility; Crude oil futures; Risk management; HAR; Asset classes
Categories
Funding
- European Union's Horizon research and innovation programme [658494]
- Marie Curie Actions (MSCA) [658494] Funding Source: Marie Curie Actions (MSCA)
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Motivated from Ross (1989) who maintains that asset volatilities are synonymous to the information flow, we claim that cross-market volatility transmission effects are synonymous to cross-market information flows or information channels from one market to another. Based on this assertion we assess whether cross-market volatility flows contain important information that can improve the accuracy of oil price realized volatility forecasting. We concentrate on realized volatilities derived from the intra-day prices of the Brent crude oil and four different asset classes (Stocks, Forex, Commodities and Macro), which represent the different nformation channels by which oil price volatility is impacted from. We employ a HAR framework and estimate forecasts for 1-day to 66-ays ahead. Our findings provide strong evidence that the use of the different nformation channels enhances the predictive accuracy of oil price realized volatility at all forecasting horizons. Numerous forecasting evaluation tests and alternative model specifications confirm the robustness of our results. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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