Journal
JOURNAL OF FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT
Volume 11, Issue -, Pages S1105-S1115Publisher
WILEY
DOI: 10.1111/jfr3.12311
Keywords
Ciliwung River Basin; climate change; FLO-2D; flood inundation; GCM bias correction; HEC-HMS
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Funding
- Water and Urban Initiative (WUI) project of the United Nations University Institute for the Advanced Study of Sustainability (UNU-IAS)
- Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research [17H01624] Funding Source: KAKEN
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This study assessed flood inundation of the Ciliwung River Basin, Greater Jakarta to improve the urban water environment under climate change and unplanned urbanisation. The 1-day maximum precipitation data for 50- and 100-year return period under current and future climate conditions were used to assess the impact of climate change. Precipitation output of the MRI-CGCM3, MIROC5, and HadGEM2-ES General Circulation Models (GCMs) with RCP 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenario over periods 1985-2004 and 2020-2039 representing current and future climate conditions, respectively, were used. Similarly, land use data of 2009 and 2030 were used to represent the current and future conditions, respectively. The HEC-HMS model was used to simulate the river discharge at Katulampa, which represents the outlet location for the hydrologic modelling and the inlet location for the flood inundation modelling. FLO-2D, a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model, was used to simulate current and future flood inundation simulations. Increasing flood inundation areas and depths (6% to 31% for different GCMs) in the future reveal the need to improve flood management tools for the sustainable development of urban water environments.
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