CT-Detected Growth of Coronary Artery Calcification in Asymptomatic Middle-Aged Subjects and Association With 15 Biomarkers

OBJECTIVES This study sought to determine the incidence and progression of coronary artery calcification (CAC) in asymptomatic middle-aged subjects and to evaluate the value of a broad panel of biomarkers in the prediction of CAC growth. BACKGROUND CAC continues to be a major risk factor, but the value of biochemical markers in predicting CAC incidence and progression remains unresolved. METHODS At baseline, 1,227 men and women underwent traditional risk assessment and a computed tomography (CT) scan to determine the CAC score. Biomarkers of calcium-phosphate metabolism (calcium, phosphate, vitamin D-3, parathyroid hormone, osteoprotegerin), lipid metabolism (triglyceride, high-and low-density lipoprotein, total cholesterol), inflammation (C-reactive protein, soluble urokinase-type plasminogen activator receptor), kidney function (creatinine, cystatin C, urate), and myocardial necrosis (cardiac troponin I) were analyzed. A second CT scan was scheduled after 5 years. General linear models were performed to examine the association between biomarkers and Delta CAC score, and additionally, sensitivity analyses were performed in terms of binary and ordinal logistic regressions. RESULTS A total of 1,006 participants underwent a CT scan after 5 years. Among the 562 participants with a baseline CAC score of 0, 189 (34%) had incident CAC, whereas 214 (48%) of the 444 participants with baseline CAC score >0 had significant progression (>15% annual increase in CAC score). In the multivariate models (n = 1,006), age, sex, hypertension, diabetes, dyslipidemia, and smoking were associated with Delta CAC, whereas the strongest predictor was baseline CAC score. Low-density lipoprotein and total cholesterol levels were independently associated with CAC incidence (n = 562; incidence rate ratio [IRR]: 1.47; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.05 to 2.05; and IRR: 1.34; 95% CI: 1.01 to 1.77, respectively), whereas phosphate level was associated with CAC progression (n = 444; IRR: 3.60; 95% CI: 1.42 to 9.11). CONCLUSIONS In this prospective study, a large part of participants had incident CAC or progression of prevalent CAC at 5 years of follow-up. Low-density lipoprotein and total cholesterol were associated with CAC incidence and phosphate with CAC progression, whereas 12 other biomarkers had little value. (C) 2017 by the American College of Cardiology Foundation.