Journal
CLIMATE DYNAMICS
Volume 49, Issue 9-10, Pages 3551-3572Publisher
SPRINGER
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3529-9
Keywords
Indian summer monsoon; El Nino southern oscillation; Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation; Pacific decadal oscillation; External forcings of climate; Solar activity
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Funding
- Federal Commission for Scholarships for Foreign Students for the Swiss Government Excellence Scholarship (ESKAS) [2013.0516]
- SNF project FUPSOL2 [CRSII2-147659]
- EC FP7 project [ERA-CLIM2: 607029]
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The present study is an effort to deepen the understanding of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) on decadal to multi-decadal timescales. We use ensemble simulations for the period AD 1600-2000 carried out by the coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Chemistry-Climate Model (AOCCM) SOCOL-MPIOM. Firstly, the SOCOL-MPIOM is evaluated using observational and reanalyses datasets. The model is able to realistically simulate the ISMR as well as relevant patterns of sea surface temperature and atmospheric circulation. Further, the influence of Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and El Nio Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability on ISMR is realistically simulated. Secondly, we investigate the impact of internal climate variability and external climate forcings on ISMR on decadal to multi-decadal timescales over the past 400 years. The results show that AMO, PDO, and Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) play a considerable role in controlling the wet and dry decades of ISMR. Resembling observational findings most of the dry decades of ISMR occur during a negative phase of AMO and a simultaneous positive phase of PDO. The observational and simulated datasets reveal that on decadal to multi-decadal timescales the ISMR has consistent negative correlation with PDO whereas its correlation with AMO and TSI is not stationary over time.
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