Refugees and Shifted Risk: An International Study of Syrian Forced Migration and Smuggling

The role of smuggling in forced migration has been a leading policy challenge of the Syrian refugee crisis in Europe and the Middle East. This study investigates how anti-smuggling government policies have shaped migratory risks for Syrian refugees in five countries: Jordan, Turkey, Greece, Serbia and Germany. Original evidence from in-depth interviews (n=123), surveys (n=100), expert interviews (n=75) and ethnography reveal that government anti-smuggler policies have: (a) endangered Syrian refugees by shifting risk from smugglers to their clients; (b) distorted refugees' perceptions of risk, and; (c) decreased refugees' confidence in government representatives while increasing dependence on smugglers. These data are unique in scope and topic, expanding the existing literature with an emphasis on understudied experiences during migration. The paper concludes with a policy recommendation that acknowledges the reality of smugglers' role in forced migrants' decisions, offering a pragmatic alternative of strategic pre-emption of smugglers.