Journal
TRENDS IN ECOLOGY & EVOLUTION
Volume 32, Issue 10, Pages 786-800Publisher
CELL PRESS
DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2017.07.012
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Funding
- National Science Foundation (NSF) Graduate Research Fellowship [1247393]
- NSF [DEB-1555876, PLR-1417754]
- Center of Biological Risk
- James S. McDonnell Foundation
- National Environmental Research Council (NERC)
- NERC [NE/N01037X/1, NE/N015843/1] Funding Source: UKRI
- Natural Environment Research Council [NE/N01037X/1, NE/N015843/1] Funding Source: researchfish
- Division Of Graduate Education
- Direct For Education and Human Resources [1247393] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
- Office of Polar Programs (OPP)
- Directorate For Geosciences [1417754] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
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Climate change is altering life at multiple scales, from genes to ecosystems. Predicting the vulnerability of populations to climate change is crucial to mitigate negative impacts. We suggest that regional patterns of spatial and temporal climatic variation scaled to the traits of an organism can predict where and why populations are most vulnerable to climate change. Specifically, historical climatic variation affects the sensitivity and response capacity of populations to climate change by shaping traits and the genetic variation in those traits. Present and future climatic variation can affect both climate change exposure and population responses. We provide seven predictions for how climatic variation might affect the vulnerability of populations to climate change and suggest key directions for future research.
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