Journal
TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH PART B-METHODOLOGICAL
Volume 95, Issue -, Pages 285-304Publisher
PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.trb.2016.10.008
Keywords
Hurricane evacuation modeling; Dynamic traffic assignment; Multi-stage stochastic programming; Progressive hedging
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Funding
- National Science Foundation [0826832, 1331269]
- Direct For Social, Behav & Economic Scie
- Divn Of Social and Economic Sciences [0826832] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
- Div Of Civil, Mechanical, & Manufact Inn
- Directorate For Engineering [1331269] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
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This paper develops a bi-level programming model to optimize the issuance of evacuation orders with explicit consideration of (i) the highly uncertain evolution of the storm, and (ii) the complexity of the behavioral reaction to evolving storm conditions. A solution procedure based on progressive hedging is developed. A realistic case study for the eastern portion of the state of North Carolina is presented. Through the case study we demonstrate (1) the value of developing an evacuation order policy based on the evolution of the storm in contrast to a static policy; (2) the richness in the insights that can be provided by linking the behavioral models for evacuation decision-making with dynamic traffic assignment-based network flow models in a hurricane context; and (3) the computational promise of a progressive hedging-based solution procedure to solve large instances of the model. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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