Solute transport in aquifers: The comeback of the advection dispersion equation and the First Order Approximation

Natural gradient steady flow of mean velocity U takes place in heterogeneous aquifers of random logconductivity Y = lnK, characterized by the normal univariate PDF f(Y) and autocorrelation.Y, of variance sigma(2)(Y) and horizontal integral scale I. Solute transport is quantified by the Breakthrough Curve (BTC) M at planes at distance x from the injection plane. The study builds on the extensive 3D numerical simulations of flow and transport of Jankovic et al. (2017) for different conductivity structures. The present study further explores the predictive capabilities of the Advection Dispersion Equation (ADE), with macrodispersivity alpha(L) given by the First Order Approximation (FOA), by checking in a quantitative manner its applicability. After a discussion on the suitable boundary conditions for ADE, we find that the ADE-FOA solution is a sufficiently accurate predictor for applications, the many other sources of uncertainty prevailing in practice notwithstanding. We checked by least squares and by comparison of travel time of quantiles of M that indeed the analytical Inverse Gaussian M with alpha(L) = sigma I-2(Y) is able to fit well the bulk of the simulated BTCs. It tends to underestimate the late arrival time of the thin and persistent tail. The tail is better reproduced by the semi-analytical MIMSCA model, which also allows for a physical explanation of the success of the Inverse Gaussian solution. Examination of the pertinent longitudinal mass distribution shows that it is different from the commonly used Gaussian one in the analysis of field experiments, and it captures the main features of the plume measurements of the MADE experiment. The results strengthen the confidence in the applicability of the ADE and the FOA to predicting longitudinal spreading in solute transport through heterogeneous aquifers of stationary random structure.