One-Year Incidence, Time Trends, and Predictors of Recurrent Ischemic Stroke in Sweden From 1998 to 2010 An Observational Study

Background and Purpose-Recent data on the incidence, time trends, and predictors of recurrent ischemic stroke are limited for unselected patient populations. Methods-Data for ischemic stroke patients were obtained from The Swedish Stroke Register (Riksstroke) between 1998 and 2009 and merged with The Swedish National Inpatient Register. A reference group of patients was created by Statistics Sweden. The ischemic stroke patient cohort was divided into 4 time periods. Recurrent ischemic stroke within 1 year was recorded until 2010. Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analyses were performed to study time trends and predictors of ischemic stroke recurrence. Results-Of 196 765 patients with ischemic stroke, 11.3% had a recurrent ischemic stroke within 1 year. The Kaplan-Meier estimates of the 1-year cumulative incidence of recurrent ischemic stroke decreased from 15.0% in 1998 to 2001 to 12.0% in 2007 to 2010 in the stroke patient cohort while the cumulative incidence of ischemic stroke decreased from 0.7% to 0.4% in the reference population. Age > 75 years, prior ischemic stroke or myocardial infarction, atrial fibrillation without warfarin treatment, diabetes mellitus, and treatment with beta-blockers or diuretics were associated with a higher risk while warfarin treatment for atrial fibrillation, lipid-lowering medication, and antithrombotic treatment (acetylsalicylic acid, dipyridamole) were associated with a reduced risk of recurrent ischemic stroke. Conclusions-The risk of recurrent ischemic stroke decreased from 1998 to 2010. Well-known risk factors for stroke were associated with a higher risk of ischemic stroke recurrence; whereas, secondary preventive medication was associated with a reduced risk, emphasizing the importance of secondary preventive treatment.