Journal
STATISTICS AND COMPUTING
Volume 28, Issue 4, Pages 725-738Publisher
SPRINGER
DOI: 10.1007/s11222-017-9759-1
Keywords
Sobol' index; Error bound; Sequential method; Quasi-Monte Carlo
Funding
- CITiES project - Agence Nationale de la Recherche [ANR-12-MONU-0020]
- United States National Science Foundation [DMS-1522687]
- Agence Nationale de la Recherche (ANR) [ANR-12-MONU-0020] Funding Source: Agence Nationale de la Recherche (ANR)
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In the field of sensitivity analysis, Sobol' indices are sensitivity measures widely used to assess the importance of inputs of a model to its output. The estimation of these indices is often performed through Monte Carlo or quasi-Monte Carlo methods. A notable method is the replication procedure that estimates first-order indices at a reduced cost in terms of number of model evaluations. An inherent practical problem of this estimation is how to quantify the number of model evaluations needed to ensure that estimates satisfy a desired error tolerance. This article addresses this challenge by proposing a reliable error bound for first-order and total effect Sobol' indices. Starting from the integral formula of the indices, the error bound is defined in terms of the discrete Walsh coefficients of the different integrands. We propose a sequential estimation procedure of Sobol' indices using the error bound as a stopping criterion. The sequential procedure combines Sobol' sequences with either Saltelli's strategy to estimate both first-order and total effect indices, or the replication procedure to estimate only first-order indices.
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