Journal
4TH INFORMATION SYSTEMS INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE (ISICO 2017)
Volume 124, Issue -, Pages 189-196Publisher
ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.procs.2017.12.146
Keywords
Forecasting; Arimax; Vector Autoregressive; Price; Strategic Commodity; Rice
Funding
- Research and Development Agency on Agriculture, Indonesian Agriculture Ministry under the Strategic Research, Assessment and Strategic Development (KP4S) scheme
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Rice as one of the strategic commodities has an important role in the life of Indonesian society. This is cause of rice is the main food of the Indonesian nation. Therefore, the stabilization of food prices is one of the priorities of the Indonesian government's policy. It can minimize the impact of the global financial crisis such as inflation and purchasing power of the poor. The sta bility price can be maintained by price forecasting for several periods ahead. It can be used to set up the anticipatory action. In this research, ARIMAX model and VAR model used to forecast the rice price. This model involves several variables including consumer rice price (HKB), production (PROD), dry milled rice (GKP), harvested area (LP), and rice price in Thailand (HD). The results show that ARIMAX model can predict the rice consumer price with MAPE 0.15%. This is 15.27 % better than VAR model. The GKP variable did not significantly affect to the rice price. This is indicated by the MAPE difference between model with GKP and model without GKP is less than 0.01%. (c) 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.
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