Towards the Characterization of Impact Projection for Complex Decisions

Dynamic domains involve complex decisions that must be made by experts. In these domains, the impacts of decisions lead to unpredictable results. An unexpected need for impact mitigation involves a great deal of material resources and expert cognitive capacity; after a decision is made, impact mitigation requires costly expert effort. To address this problem, this paper proposes the characterization of projections for the impacts of decisions in the early stages of decision management. A complex decision impact (CDI) metamodel is put forward that forms the basis of a support system to orient decision makers in the achievement of decision impacts. This proposal was evaluated by experts in the field of dynamic domains, and this evaluation generated evidence confirming the feasibility of CDI and the adherence of the proposed metamodel regarding the actions taken in practice by decision makers in complex domains.