Journal
SCIENCE
Volume 356, Issue 6345, Pages 1356-1361Publisher
AMER ASSOC ADVANCEMENT SCIENCE
DOI: 10.1126/science.aal4108
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Funding
- Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation [GBMF3269]
- NASA's Interdisciplinary Science and Carbon Monitoring System Programs
- Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO)
- EU [603445, 603542]
- National Science Foundation of China [41475099]
- European Space Agency Fire_CCI project
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Fire is an essential Earth system process that alters ecosystem and atmospheric composition. Here we assessed long- term fire trends using multiple satellite data sets. We found that global burned area declined by 24.3 +/- 8.8% over the past 18 years. The estimated decrease in burned area remained robust after adjusting for precipitation variability and was largest in savannas. Agricultural expansion and intensification were primary drivers of declining fire activity. Fewer and smaller fires reduced aerosol concentrations, modified vegetation structure, and increased the magnitude of the terrestrial carbon sink. Fire models were unable to reproduce the pattern and magnitude of observed declines, suggesting that they may overestimate fire emissions in future projections. Using economic and demographic variables, we developed a conceptual model for predicting fire in human-dominated landscapes.
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