Journal
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
Volume 10, Issue 6, Pages -Publisher
IOP Publishing Ltd
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/10/6/064006
Keywords
seasonal forecast; river flow; North Atlantic Oscillation; United Kingdom
Funding
- UK Public Weather Service
- EU project SPECS - European Commission [308378]
- Joint DECC/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme [GA01101]
- NERC-CEH
- NERC-BGS
- Natural Environment Research Council [bgs05007, ceh010010] Funding Source: researchfish
- NERC [bgs05007] Funding Source: UKRI
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Seasonal river flow forecasts are beneficial for planning agricultural activities, river navigation, and for management of reservoirs for public water supply and hydropower generation. In the United Kingdom (UK), skilful seasonal river flow predictions have previously been limited to catchments in lowland (southern and eastern) regions. Here we show that skilful long-range forecasts of winter flows can now be achieved across the whole of the UK. This is due to a remarkable geographical complementarity between the regional geological and meteorological sources of predictability for river flows. Forecast skill derives from the hydrogeological memory of antecedent conditions in southern and eastern parts of theUKand from meteorological predictability in northern and western areas. Specifically, it is the predictions of the atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic that provides the skill at the seasonal timescale. In addition, significant levels of skill in predicting the frequency of winter high flow events is demonstrated, which has the potential to allow flood adaptation measures to be put in place.
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