Scenario analysis on resource and environmental benefits of imported steel scrap for China's steel industry

China's steel production has increased rapidly since 2000, accounting for 49.4% of worldwide production in 2014. Steel production is energy- and resource-intensive, and is also a major source of pollution. The potential for resource and energy conservation and emissions mitigation in China's steel industry is investigated in this study for its worthwhile and realistic significance. This paper used the subsystem input-output model and scenario analysis to investigate the influence of imported steel scrap on the future energy and resource consumption and waste gas emissions (CO2, SO2 and PM) of China's steel industry. These results reveal that intensive use of steel scrap, especially imported steel scrap, is crucial for a sustainable steel industry. Compared to the baseline scenario (scenario 1), the potential for energy conservation, iron ore conservation and waste gas emissions mitigation in China's steel sector under the new policy scenario (scenario 3) is around 10082 PJ, 8209 Mt, and 2068 Mt, respectively, between 2014 and 2030. Finally, the obstacles to the development of China's steel scrap industry are discussed in detail, and some suggestions are proposed, to provide a scientific basis for the government and steelmakers. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.