The interplay between incremental, transitional, and transformational adaptation: a case study of Canadian agriculture

We develop and apply a synthetic framework for understanding potential adaptations to climate change in the Canadian agriculture sector through a case study of irrigated agriculture in the Oldman River Basin. Our framework examines the incremental, transitional, and transformational elements of climate change adaptation (the Adapt IT2 framework, for short), and we apply our framework to focus group discussions around hypothetical hydro-climatic variability and extremes to identify past and potential future adaptations. By applying our framework, we uncover the nuanced interplay between incremental and transformation adaptation and develop the related concept of transition. Our work provides insights into the interactions between the different types of adaptation processes, and our findings indicate that: (1) There are interdependencies between and among actions and actors across various scales and (2) one type of adaptation can set boundaries for the other. This work also identifies thresholds that, when perceived to be surpassed by actors, may facilitate transformation. It concludes with opportunities for further research, particularly into the transitional space that exists between the two types of adaptation.