Journal
ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE
Volume 63, Issue -, Pages 109-122Publisher
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.09.016
Keywords
Flood risk; Indirect impacts; Computable general equilibrium; Natural disasters
Categories
Funding
- Italian Ministry of Education, University and Research
- Ministry for Environment, Land and Sea (the GEMINA project)
- EU's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7) (EPI-WATER - Evaluating Economic Policy Instruments for Sustainable Water Management in Europe) [265213]
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In this paper we developed and tested an integrated methodology for assessing direct and indirect economic impacts of flooding. The methodology combines a spatial analysis of the damage to the physical stock with a general economic equilibrium approach using a regionally-calibrated (to Italy) version of a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) global model. We applied the model to the 2000 Po river flood in Northern Italy. To account for the uncertainty in the induced effects on regional economies, we explored three disruption and two recovery scenarios. The results highlight that: i) the flood event produces indirect losses in the national economic system, which are a significant share of the direct losses, and ii) the methodology is able to capture both positive and negative economic effects of the disaster in different areas of the same country. The assessment of indirect impacts, in particular, is essential for a full understanding of the economic outcomes of natural disasters. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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